By Bill Loftus

Projections for Idaho agriculture in the years ahead range from exuberance buoyed by market trends, to faith in the state's expert producers, to concerns for family farms, and impacts of influences beyond our control.

Prospects affect each producer differently, as drought, market forces, and other challenges appear. Agriculture will continue to change, and those who survive must change and adapt.

"These are the good old days for Idaho agriculture, and it is only going to get bigger and better," predicts UI Agricultural Economist Garth Taylor. UI 2004 year-end projections showed Idaho's overall crop and livestock revenues reaching a record $4.4 billion. He sees Idaho agriculture as a stabilizing force, providing Idaho's economy with a solid foundation.

Gov. Dirk Kempthorne's chief economist, Michael Ferguson, observes that agriculture hasn't gone on a tear like high tech, but its benefits are steady, with roots that reach deep into rural Idaho.

A whirlwind of contradictory forces challenge Idaho ag

The new century also presents a whirlwind of contradictory forces. "We have seen a spectacular loss of diversity in Idaho's agriculture and a spectacular increase in agricultural production," Taylor said. The cherry orchards that once symbolized his native Emmett faded, replaced by cornfields and hay to feed Idaho's booming livestock and dairy herds.

Paul Patterson, an Idaho Falls-based UI Extension agricultural economist, sees strong overall prospects but believes the fate of individual producers will depend on factors outside the control of Idaho's farmers.

"We are in transition," adds Pat Takasugi, Idaho State Department of Agriculture director. "We excel at production. So do our competitors. We're looking at a major transition to a value-added agriculture."

Idaho ag trends-bigger, smaller, niche, organic, biotech

Trends help federal and state leaders determine which priorities to fund. Still, trends are tricky, Patterson notes, because economists must use the past to predict the future. "It's inflection points, where trends change, that are difficult to predict." Here are eight Idaho trends.

"Consumers want high-quality food as cheap as possible. They've been able to get both in this country, probably to the detriment of production agriculture," says Patterson.

When growers sign contracts to provide crops to processors and lock in a price-a common risk-management strategy-the market's access to information suffers. Their price is typically confidential. "A lot more market data are becoming proprietary," Patterson said. "Farmers making management decisions in the absence of this information will face increased risk."

Idaho lost 500 farms between 1997 and 2002, U.S. Census of Agriculture data show. By 2002, farms totaled 25,017. Only 3 percent (689 farms) reported sales of more than $1 million. They accounted for 79 percent of Idaho's agricultural sales. The smallest farms-49 acres or less-are up 12,310, or 21.3 percent. Patterson said 60 percent of losses were in sizes typical of family farms -260 to 2,000 acres.

The summer 2004 P&P cover story discussed ways the UI College of Agricultural and Life Sciences (CALS) helps Idaho's small-acreage growers (see http://info.ag.uidaho.edu/magazine/).

During a March conference in Moscow, Rural Roots Executive Director Colette DePhelps noted the rise of small farms and their local economic potential. One example is MaryJane Butters (see story p. 6). Among an increasing number of women in agriculture, Butters grows and markets organic foods. She courts agritourism with her bed-and-breakfast and farm training options.

Idaho is now fifth in the nation for dairy production. Takasugi expects Idaho to be third or fourth within a decade. The beef cattle industry grows along with it, as do crops cows need, such as hay.

Idaho's signature crop, hard hit by forces as diverse as global markets and anti-carb diets, still has a bright future, believes UI's Joe Guenthner, who has international stature for his work tracking potato economics. Steve Vernon, vice president of research for J.R. Simplot, says Idaho can no longer afford a bad crop. "It is important to make the potato literally immune to the myriad of ways that natural circumstances can degrade crop quality."

Biotechnology is "key" to Idaho's future agricultural success, believes Takasugi. Fears about biotechnology that have dogged other aspects of agriculture are a non-issue for biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. He also expects biotechnology to result in modifications to enhance foods' nutritional values. Enzyme and vitamin-enhanced crops are examples.

Greater consumer demand for organic products is an opportunity many Idaho producers recognize. Premium prices for organic products help small producers, but market pressures affect them too.

The result is that even the smallest farms are finding ways to cooperate with others to produce larger volumes while cutting expenses. And large farms are shifting to organic produce. Patterson believes the move toward large organic farms will eventually eliminate much of the premium prices crops and livestock organic growers now receive.

Amid inevitable ups and downs, CALS and UI Extension focus resources to help operators of all sizes increase yields, cut expenses, and develop new products and markets. The next seven pages sample current breakthroughs by UI scientists, often partnering with Idaho growers, to sustain Idaho agriculture's continuing success.

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