EXPORTS WILL DETERMINE PRICES FOR AMPLE 1999 DRY BEAN CROP

Writer: Marlene Fritz (208/364-4010 in Boise)
Source: Paul Patterson (208/529-8376 in Idaho Falls)

IDAHO FALLS, Idaho–Restrained by a plentiful U.S. crop that exceeds the five-year average by 7 percent--and by projected exports that fall 10 percent below--prices for this year’s dry edible beans will have a tough time climbing out of the cellar.

Paul Patterson, University of Idaho extension agricultural economist, forecasts a modest 50-cent to $1.00 per hundredweight increase over the 1998-99 average price of $17.05 received by Idaho producers. The five-year average price is $20.30.

Writing in the UI’s Fall 1999 Idaho Agricultural Outlook, Patterson says early post-harvest prices for Pintos and Great Northerns are "showing some life" but it’s "difficult at this time to be optimistic." He identifies the three most important factors that will determine the direction of 1999-00 marketing year prices as "exports, exports and exports."

Projected domestic use of dry beans, a roughly stable 7.8 pounds per capita, represents only two-thirds of the anticipated 31.76 million cwt. 1999 U.S. crop--expected to be the third largest harvest on record. "If the remainder of production doesn’t move in the export market, it depresses the domestic market," says Patterson.

Over the past five calendar years, U.S. dry bean exports have averaged 8.7 million cwt. The USDA Agricultural Statistics Service estimates that 7.8 million cwt. will move overseas by the end of this year–the same amount as in 1997. Exports were up sharply–to 10.7 million cwt.–in 1998.

Nationwide, a decrease in planted acres in North Dakota–the U.S.’s largest dry bean producer–was more than offset by gains in planted acres in Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota and California. An unusually high number of abandoned fields eroded harvested acreage to 1,903,000--10,900 fewer than in 1998. Still, with yields up 3.6 percent, 1999 U.S. production rose 3 percent over 1998.

In Idaho, 1999 yields are expected to average 20 cwt. per acre on 103,000 acres, compared with 20.5 cwt. on the same acreage in 1998. At an anticipated 2,060,000 cwt., Idaho’s final 1999 production figures should be shy of 1998’s by 2.5 percent. Throughout the Pacific Northwest, production is off 2 percent.

Pintos, which averaged $15.40 for the 1998-99 marketing year, are currently trading in the $17 to $18 range. Great Northerns, which averaged $17.45, are selling for $17 to $19. Small Whites are starting the new marketing year roughly where they ended the old one–between $18 and $20–while Pinks and Small Reds are revealing early-season weakness.

"Once prices have stabilized, this marketing year will likely be similar to last year, with fairly flat prices over the majority of the season," says Patterson. This year, however, Pinto prices should also remain fairly flat, rather than skidding $3 as they did during the 1998-99 marketing year.

Patterson projects the 1999-00 average price at $17.55.

The Fall 1999 Idaho Agricultural Outlook is available at length, with supporting tables and graphs, on the web site of the UI Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, http://www.uidaho.edu/ag/agecon. Once on the home page, Internet users should click first on Publications, then on the Idaho Agricultural Outlook for October 1999.